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Capital Intelligence affirms UAE rating at AA- with a stable outlook
Agency affirmed the strength of the UAE's financial and economic fundamentals by maintaining its long-term sovereign credit rating in both foreign and local currencies at AA- , while keeping the short-term rating at A1+ with a stable outlook.
The agency attributed this assessment in a report to the overall stability and diversification of the country’s economic base compared to its counterparts in the region, in addition to the high per capita GDP.
The agency also stressed that the strong support provided by the Emirate of Abu Dhabi is a key factor in this rating, praising the effective systems in macroeconomic management that aim to achieve financial integration and targeted growth .
The agency explained that the country’s external accounts remain very strong, with the current account surplus expected to reach 13.2% of GDP in 2025, compared to about 14.5% in 2024, and to stabilize at an average of 11.9% during 2026 and 2027.
Regarding international liquidity, official reserves recorded a notable increase to reach $274 billion in October 2025, after being $238.2 billion in December 2024, with expectations of reaching $280 billion by the end of 2025, levels that cover about 215.4% of the external debt due in 2026.
The agency also noted the enormous assets managed by sovereign wealth funds, most notably the AbuDhabi Investment Authority, whose assets were estimated at about $1.11 trillion in 2024, which contributed to raising the overall international liquidity ratio to a very high level of 825.6 %.
Capital Intelligence affirmed the strength of the government’s financial position, supported by oil and gas revenues, estimating a consolidated budget surplus of 5.1% of GDP in 2025 compared to 5.4% in 2024, with expectations that the surplus will continue at an average of 4.7% during 2026 and 2027 based on an assumed oil price of $60 per barrel.
In a related context, the agency predicted that the combined government debt would decrease to 34% of GDP in 2025, compared to 34.9% in the previous year, confirming the decrease in refinancing risks thanks to easy access to capital markets; this was reflected in the strong demand for Abu Dhabi’s $3 billion euro bonds in September 2025, and Dubai’s dual issuance of $1.25 billion in April 2025 .
In conclusion, regarding economic growth prospects and the soundness of the banking sector, the agency predicted continued strong economic growth supported by domestic activity and structural reforms, with real GDP growth estimated at 4.9% in 2025, and averaging 5.1% during 2026 and 2027.
The report also showed that the UAE banking system enjoys high solvency, with a capital adequacy ratio of 17.4%, a Tier 1 capital ratio of 16.2%, and a core capital ratio of 14.8% at the end of September 2025.
This was accompanied by an improvement in asset quality through a decline in the ratio of non-performing loans to 3.2% of total loans, which enhances confidence in the country’s financial stability in the short and medium term .
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